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新闻与见解

咖啡收成最新消息——边际模糊

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Coffee Market Update Blurred Lines 3840 2160

执行摘要

  • 今年一百多家中央银行加息,另有不少表示还会继续加息。
  • 世界各地的极端高温加剧了气候危机,夏季水位下降和干旱的可能性越来越大,影响到作物生长。
  • 与其他国家相比,美国经济状况更好,更有能力应对加息带来的冲击。
  • 未来几个月,随着通胀上升、实际收入下降,消费能力将继续减弱,而支出将逐月收缩。
  • 然而,问题仍然在于央行是否能够既平息通胀,又不把经济推向衰退。
  • 欧元区经济衰退的风险现已达到2020年11月以来的最高水平,技术性衰退的概率增至60%。
  • 总体而言,欧盟在为全面停供的应急情况做准备,需要靠实施配给制以节约能源。
  • 巴西和美国受到经济增长放缓的影响,而印度尼西亚和越南则受益于今年以来减少封锁措施。
  • 巴西总统大选本月底进入最后阶段。随着博尔索纳罗的改革,现金继续流向贫困家庭,导致两名候选人之间的差距进一步缩小。
  • 咖啡厂商本季度录得正收入,因为较高的咖啡价格弥补了较低销售量的损失。
  • 截至目前,通胀尚未导致客户在咖啡产品上的支出明显减少。
  • 由于生活成本危机,欧洲咖啡消费停滞不前,但美国和东南亚的需求将在今明两年的收获年度小幅走高。
  • 巴西85%的化肥需要进口,因此容易受到价格上涨的影响,而欧洲的产能因天然气价格而关闭,出口减少。
  • 由于巴西农民想要使用施肥,从俄罗斯的化肥进口量有所增加,虽然近几个月价格涨势有所放缓,仍处于历史高位,加上强势美元,造成生产成本上升。
  • 中国经济放缓将导致咖啡消费疲软,但中国进口量的增加表明市场预计需求将走强。
  • 据德勤称,消费者对口味和质量更好的咖啡的要求越来越高。我们认为,这将导致阿拉比卡咖啡供不应求的情况大幅加剧。
  • 对于“速食咖啡”,80%的市场在于办公区域附近的商店,80%消费者在堂食时与其他产品同时消费,如烘焙食品、果汁和茶。
  • 由于巴西的问题,今明两年的收获季可能再次出现相当的紧缺。
  • 最近主要咖啡产区有一些降雨,但总降雨量仍然很低,但持续降水有助于补充土壤水分。
  • 近几个月巴西化肥进口量开始增加,达到336.7 万吨。化肥FOB价格在8月初一度飙升至40,000 美元 ,截至8月22日价格约为23,191美元 。
  • 本年度Conilon的总出货量较低,仅有939,334 袋,而阿拉比卡为1,929万袋。本年度的总出货量为2244.3万袋;德国、比利时和意大利收到的咖啡最多,超过1000万袋。
  • 在撰写本文时,南美产区降雨零星,仅覆盖巴拉那、圣保罗和米纳斯南部地区。收获已经结束,预计今明年度的收成为5900万袋。
  • 降雨也推迟了收成,在化肥价格高企的情况下,减少化肥施用会降低产量。预计产量仅1200万袋,随着周期的继续,这一数字可能减少至1150万袋。
  • 一段时间以来,我们一直在说越南农民已经开始将辣椒和榴莲等其他作物引入他们的农场,因为它的产量要高得多,而且中国市场近在眼前。这种情况将继续下去,从产能的角度来看,预计收成达不到3000万袋。
  • 洪都拉斯的价格升水超过35美分,但由于新收割尚未开始,预计该产区暂不会以220美分/磅的价格出售咖啡,直到十月份市场价格达到255美分/磅才开始销售。

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