Aluminium Outlook & Market Analysis - Sucden Financial > Metals Outlook > Market Insights

Expert aluminium market insights

Our quarterly aluminium outlook is published in our Quarterly Metals Report, which covers base, precious and ferrous metals. The impact of supply and demand fundamentals, including LME and SHFE stocks and macroeconomic implications for the aluminium futures and spot prices are analysed. Our research team produce an aluminium price range forecast as part of the report.

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Aluminium Outlook – Q4 2024

Aluminium continues to face moderate upside pressures, driven by a combination of increased confidence following announcements from China and ongoing supply disruptions in alumina production. We anticipate these factors may lead to short-term volatility spikes in Q4 2024. However, due to subdued overall performance in China and an oversupply of refined aluminium, subsequent mean-reversion strategies will likely offset these gains. The support at $2,450/t should hold in the meantime.

Metals

As we enter Q4 2024, several trends from the previous quarter continue to persist. The central banks began their interest rate cutting cycles, with the Fed initiating a 50bps cut at its first meeting. The ECB is on a similar path, but it is facing strong pressures to cut due to the weakening performance of the Eurozone, which is creating a larger yield differential compared to the US. In China, authorities are aiming to stimulate the economy through fiscal and monetary policy measures; however, they are struggling to restore market confidence, particularly in the construction sector. These factors, combined with the upcoming US elections in November, create a strong likelihood of increased volatility. In this report, we will examine the potential trajectories for base, ferrous, and precious metals in the final months of the year.

Q4 2024