Copper Outlook & Market Analysis - Sucden Financial > Metals Outlook > Market Insights

Expert copper market insights

Our quarterly copper outlook is published in our Quarterly Metals Report, which covers base, precious and ferrous metals. The impact of supply and demand fundamentals, including LME and SHFE stocks and macroeconomic implications for the copper futures and spot prices are analysed. Our research team produce a copper price range forecast as part of the report.

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Copper Outlook – Q4 2024

Copper, like the broader metals complex, saw a notable boost from Chinese stimulus measures, prompting it to temporarily breach the $10,000/t mark. However, this momentum was short-lived, as the government failed to introduce more concrete measures for the construction segment. In Q4, we expect prices to soften moderately as markets adjust to China's subdued growth outlook. Nevertheless, we expect prices to gain momentum again in December, fuelled by renewed hopes for the country's recovery in 2025.

Metals

As we enter Q4 2024, several trends from the previous quarter continue to persist. The central banks began their interest rate cutting cycles, with the Fed initiating a 50bps cut at its first meeting. The ECB is on a similar path, but it is facing strong pressures to cut due to the weakening performance of the Eurozone, which is creating a larger yield differential compared to the US. In China, authorities are aiming to stimulate the economy through fiscal and monetary policy measures; however, they are struggling to restore market confidence, particularly in the construction sector. These factors, combined with the upcoming US elections in November, create a strong likelihood of increased volatility. In this report, we will examine the potential trajectories for base, ferrous, and precious metals in the final months of the year.

Q4 2024