US stocks weakened today after a volatile week as the market priced in “Trump” trades, which have bolstered the inflationary narrative across the board. Still, US equities remain historically elevated, with economic indicators suggesting the robustness of the US economy from both labour and consumer perspectives. The Fed’s Powell stated that the central bank might take the time to ease its policy. As a result, markets have dialled down on bets of the Fed cutting path for 2025; the chance of a 25bps December cut now stands at 62%. The dollar struggled above the 107 level, weakening to 106.70, and the US 10-year Treasury yield held steady at 4.45%.
Base metals eased this week’s downside pressures on Friday, buoyed by a weaker dollar and positive figures out of China. In particular, the consumer segment performance showed continued signs of improvement, with retail sales expanding by 4.8%, marking the fastest growth in eight months. Industrial production weakened slightly to 5.3%. We may see support levels forming for the complex to recover from in the coming weeks. The $9,000/t held firmly for copper. Lead and zinc tested support levels at $1,950/t and $2,900/t. Tin continued to weaken, falling below $29,000/t. Meanwhile, aluminium skyrocketed, offsetting this week’s losses after China announced it was removing a tax rebate covering 5m tonnes of metal export. This measure should ease the export of refined material, which is currently oversupplied in the domestic market.
Oil prices held firmly, as precious metals sought to recover upside momentum following the dollar's weakening pace. At the time of writing, gold and silver traded at $2,570/oz and $30.40/oz, respectively.
All price data is from 15.11.2024 as of 17:30