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Daily Base Metals Report

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Authors
Daria Efanova

Daria Efanova Head of Research

Viktoria Kuszak

Viktoria Kuszak Research Associate

Contact research Contact Industrial Commodities

Metals: The Latest Target of US Tariffs 

Summary

  • Renewed trade tensions following Trump's steel and aluminium tariffs have raised concerns over global trade disruptions and higher input costs for US manufacturers.
  • Base metals’ reaction to a 25% US tariff on aluminium and steel was muted, given the lack of clarity on the tariff specifics.
  • Gold surged to record highs as investors sought safe-haven assets amid economic uncertainty, while oil prices advanced steadily.

US stocks opened higher today, tracking gains in European markets despite renewed trade tensions following President Trump’s latest tariff announcement. On February 9, Trump announced plans to impose a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminium imports, with the measures taking effect on February 10. The European Commission responded swiftly, signalling its intention to introduce countermeasures to protect European industries. This move echoes the trade disputes of Trump's first term when similar tariffs imposed in 2018 led to EU retaliation and subsequent negotiations that resulted in a quota system. The new tariffs have sparked concerns over rising input costs for US manufacturers and potential disruptions to global trade. The dollar strengthened against major currencies, with the dollar index trading higher at 108.2. After a sharp increase on Friday, the 10-year US Treasury yield edged lower, settling at 4.47%.

In the base metal space, despite a 25% tariff announcement on aluminium and steel, the price reaction was muted today, given the lack of clarity on the tariff specifics. Aluminium jumped above the $2,600/t resistance level but struggled above the previous high of $2,661/t. We believe that markets are becoming more desensitised to tariff threats unless they fully capture their implications. Copper, on the other hand, jumped higher on the open, testing the $9,500/t once again but struggling to break significantly above this level. At the same time, the support at $9,400/t held firmly, keeping copper in a narrow range. The COMEX/LME spread continued to widen, with COMEX pricing in tariff threats more heavily. While we believe a correction is due, it is likely to be marginal, with solid support forming at $9,200-9,300/t. Elsewhere, lead and zinc held their nerve at $2,000/t and $2,846.50/t, respectively. Nickel sold off, breaking below $15,600/t.

Gold extended its rally, reaching another record high above $2,909/oz as uncertainty surrounding the broader economic impact of trade restrictions drove safe-haven demand. Silver followed suit, rising to $32.2/oz. Oil prices advanced steadily, with WTI trading at $71.7/bbl and Brent at $75.3/bbl.

Lme Metals Price And Volume 10022025

All price data is from 10.02.2025 as of 17:30

Disclaimer

This is a marketing communication. The information in this report is provided solely for informational purposes and should not be regarded as a recommendation to buy, sell or otherwise deal in any particular investment. Please be aware that, where any views have been expressed in this report, the author of this report may have had many, varied views over the past 12 months, including contrary views.

A large number of views are being generated at all times and these may change quickly. Any valuations or underlying assumptions made are solely based upon the author’s market knowledge and experience.

Please contact the author should you require a copy of any previous reports for comparative purposes. Furthermore, the information in this report has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. All information in this report is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.

This report is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Accordingly, the information may have been acted upon by us for our own purposes and has not been procured for the exclusive benefit of customers. Sucden Financial believes that the information contained within this report is already in the public domain. Private customers should not invest in these products unless they are satisfied that the products are suitable for them and they have sought professional advice. Please read our full risk warnings and disclaimers.

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