Nickel Outlook & Market Analysis - Sucden Financial > Metals Outlook > Market Insights

Expert nickel market insights

Our quarterly nickel outlook is published in our Quarterly Metals Report, which covers base, precious and ferrous metals. The impact of supply and demand fundamentals and macroeconomic implications for the nickel futures and spot prices are analysed. Our research team produce a nickel price range forecast as part of the report.

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Nickel Outlook – Q4 2024

Nickel experienced strong upside pressures in Q3, boosted by concerns over potential Russian export curbs. However, due to significant supply challenges, this upward trend was not sustained, and prices fell back below $17,000 per tonne. As we head into Q4, we see several headwinds for nickel. In particular, ongoing output expansion at Indonesian mines and weak construction demand from China significantly impact metal prices. We expect that nickel will struggle to stay above $18,000/t as we approach the year-end.

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As we enter Q4 2024, several trends from the previous quarter continue to persist. The central banks began their interest rate cutting cycles, with the Fed initiating a 50bps cut at its first meeting. The ECB is on a similar path, but it is facing strong pressures to cut due to the weakening performance of the Eurozone, which is creating a larger yield differential compared to the US. In China, authorities are aiming to stimulate the economy through fiscal and monetary policy measures; however, they are struggling to restore market confidence, particularly in the construction sector. These factors, combined with the upcoming US elections in November, create a strong likelihood of increased volatility. In this report, we will examine the potential trajectories for base, ferrous, and precious metals in the final months of the year.

Q4 2024