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Daria Efanova

Daria Efanova Head of Research

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NY 2nd Month Sugar Futures

NY Sugar 17062024

NY sugar futures weakened on Friday as moderate selling pressure triggered a close above 19.20 at 19.49. The stochastics are falling. The %K/%D has converged on the downside, signalling a potential change in trend. The MACD is positive and converging, suggesting waning buying pressures. The doji candle formation supports market indecisiveness above current resistance levels. Prices have been trading in a narrow range, and in order to confirm the change of momentum on the downside, prices need to break below the shorter-term DMAs at 19.10. Conversely, a break above 19.80 could set the scene for a test of 20.00. We expect prices to be capped by the 19.80 level today.

Tables 1 (394)

Ldn 2nd Month Sugar Futures

Ldn Sugar 17062024

Ldn sugar futures opened in the upper end of the trading range on Friday; however, prices struggled above the 550 level and closed on the back foot at 546.20. The stochastics are showing signs of convergence, with %K/%D falling on the downside out of the overbought. The MACD is positive and converging, suggesting waning upside momentum in the near term. The rejection of higher prices may prompt a break back towards support at 10 DMA at 537.46; a subsequent breach of this level could trigger losses towards 512.60. On the upside, a break of resistance at 550 may prompt futures to test 575. A subsequent breach of this level would prompt prices to regain upside momentum in the near term. Friday's price rejection above 550 indicates a lack of appetite for further gains; we expect futures to soften in the near term.

Tables 2 (393)

NY 2nd Month Coffee Futures

NY Coffee 17062024

NY coffee held its nerve on Friday as intraday trading caused futures to close below the 10 DMA at 226.64. The %K/%D is now flat, following recent weakness, and the MACD diff is negative and diverging. This suggests that while downside pressures remain, the appetite for lower prices is waning. To suggest a trend on the upside, prices need to close above the 10 DMA at 226.64, the level the futures struggled to break in recent days, and then target 233.35, which is last week's high. On the downside, the rejection of prices above the 10 DMA could trigger losses back to 200 before targeting the 40 DMA level. The doji candle with longer wicks underscores uncertainty about future price moves, and we expect futures to trade rangebound in the near term.

Tables 3 (392)

Ldn 2nd Month Coffee Futures

Ldn Coffee 17062024

Ldn coffee futures softened on Friday after testing the support level of 4000. The market closed marginally higher at 4009. The stochastics are falling, with %K/%D diverging on the downside, and the MACD diff is negative and diverging, paving the way for lower prices in the near term. The reaffirmation of support at 4000 could set the scene for higher prices back to test the 10 DMA level at 4137. On the downside, futures need to break below the current support level in order to confirm the bearish trend. The 4000 support level has been robust in recent weeks, and a break below this level could help confirm lower prices in the near term.

Tables 4 (394)

NY 2nd Month Cocoa Futures

NY Cocoa 17062024

NY cocoa futures lost ground on Friday as selling pressure intensified; prices closed at 9701. The MACD diff is positive and converging, suggesting strengthening selling pressure. The stochastics are showing signs of convergence on the downside. To help confirm the selling pressure from the stochastics, prices need to break below the 10 and 40 DMA at 9254 and 8728, respectively. On the upside, if futures can find support above 9000, this could set the scene for higher prices back above 10000. Selling pressure was robust on Friday, with strong volatility during the day, outlined by a longer lower wick. We expect prices to weaken in the near term, but the futures need to break below 40 and 10 DMAs to confirm that outlook over the longer term.

Tables 5 (392)

Ldn 2nd Month Cocoa Futures

Ldn Cocoa 17062024

NY coffee futures opened higher day-on-day but struggled to break above the resistance at 8100 and closed at 8048. The stochastics have converged on the downside. Likewise, the MACD diff is positive and converging marginally, suggesting a waning buying appetite. Prices then need to take out the 8000 level to confirm the bearish momentum to 10 DMA at 7461. Conversely, appetite for prices above 8100 could trigger a test of resistance of 8500. A dragonfly doji candle shows rejection of higher prices above 8100 and could point to the start of a bearish sentiment in the near term. To confirm this, the support at 10 DMA has to be broken below first.

Tables 6 (393)

 

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