NY 2nd Month Sugar Futures
NY sugar futures held their nerve yesterday, causing the market to close at 20.94. The stochastics are falling, with %K/%D diverging on the downside in the oversold, and the MACD diff is negative and diverging, suggesting lower prices in the near term. To confirm the outlook for lower prices, futures need to close back below 20.76, which has been robust and then target 40 DMA at 20.27. The 10 DMA is also closing in and resisting prices from the upside. However, a break above that level could set the scene for 22.00. A narrow candle body with longer lower wicks points to a lack of appetite on the downside, but futures need to break out of the current resistance of 21.44 to suggest a trend change in the near term.
Ldn 2nd Month Sugar Futures
Ldn sugar opened lower yesterday, but support at 574 held firm once again, causing futures to close higher day-on-day at 580.40. The stochastics are falling lower towards the oversold, and the MACD diff is negative and diverging, suggesting continued momentum on the downside in the near term. To confirm this, the support at 574 needs to be broken first before testing the 550 level. On the upside, resistance at 580.70 and then 10 DMA at 584.03 are to be breached to set the scene for 600. A longer upper wick suggests that most of the trading took place in the lower ranges during the day as futures continued to test the near-term support. We expect this level to be tested again in the near term.
NY 2nd Month Coffee Futures
NY coffee futures held their nerve yesterday to close at 246.95. The stochastics are falling, with %K/%D diverging in the oversold, which could suggest a continuation of downside momentum in the near term. The MACD diff is negative and diverging. On the upside, futures need to break above the robust resistance levels of the trendline at 248 and 251, respectively, to trigger the momentum. Prices would then need to take out the 10 DMA level at 260 to confirm the trend reversal. Conversely, appetite for prices below 240 could trigger a test of support of 100 DMA at 238.69. A dragonfly doji candle shows rejection of lower prices and could point to an end of the bearish sentiment we have seen in the last couple of days.
Ldn 2nd Month Coffee Futures
Ldn coffee futures held their nerve yesterday as intraday trading saw prices close at 4684. The %K/%D is falling into the oversold territory. The MACD diff is negative and diverging, suggesting further appetite for lower prices, but futures need to break below 4500 to trigger the momentum. A break below this level towards the support of 100 DMA at 4478 would confirm the strong bearish momentum. Conversely, appetite for prices back above the 4664 level could trigger a test of resistance of 40 DMA at 4902. A long-legged doji candle shows indecision about prices out of the current range. The indicators point to a fall in prices, but futures need to close below 4500 to trigger the momentum.
NY 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
NY cocoa futures edged higher yesterday, testing the resistance at 10 DMA and closing at 6180. The stochastics are rising, with %K/%D just converging on the upside, and the MACD diff is negative and converging. The reaffirmation of support at 10 DMA at 6258 could set the scene for higher prices back to test 6720. On the downside, futures need to break below the support of 6000 in order to suggest further declines. The market needs to gain a footing above the 10 DMA in the immediate term to improve the outlook on the upside.
Ldn 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
Ldn cocoa held its nerve yesterday as prices closed above the 4489 level at 4545. The stochastics are rising, with %K/%D exiting the oversold territory. The MACD is positive and diverging, pointing to higher prices in the near term. The rejection of lower prices may prompt a break back towards resistance at 4700; a subsequent breach of this level could trigger gains towards 5000. On the downside, a break of 10 DMA at 4517 may prompt futures to retest the last session’s lows at 4300. A subsequent breach of this level would confirm the descending triangle formation and send prices lower in the longer term. Short wicks point to a lack of appetite; however, we expect futures to edge marginally on the upside.
