NY 2nd Month Sugar Futures
NY sugar futures held their nerve on Friday as intraday trading saw futures test appetite at the 10 DMA once again. This level held firm, and futures closed just below it at 20.10. The stochastics are rising, with %K/%D seen converging on the upside out of the oversold, a strong buy signal. The MACD diff is negative and also converging on the upside, signalling waning selling pressures. To confirm the outlook for higher prices, futures need to break above the 10 DMA resistance at 20.19, which could set the scene for futures to take out the 20.76 level. On the downside, the market needs to take out support at 20.00 and then support at 19.50. The candle found support above these levels, and a longer upper wick signals an appetite for higher prices. If the futures break above the current resistance, we could see prices edge higher, and indicators point to a convergence on a downtrend.
Ldn 2nd Month Sugar Futures
Ldn sugar futures opened above the previous day's close on Friday; however, prices struggled above the trend support and closed on the back foot at 555. The stochastics are rising, with %K/%D seen converging on the upside out of the oversold. The MACD is negative and converging, suggesting a strong buy signal in the near term. The rejection of higher prices may prompt a break back towards support at 100 DMA at 548.86; a subsequent breach of this level could trigger losses towards 540.20. On the upside, a break of trend resistance at 558 may prompt futures to test the 10 DMA at 562.68 once again. A subsequent breach of this level would prompt prices to regain upside momentum towards the trend range. A longer upper wick points to an appetite out of the current trading range; however, the future needs to break above the 10 DMA resistance to confirm the outlook.
NY 2nd Month Coffee Futures
NY coffee futures rallied once again on Friday as protracted buying pressure triggered a close on the front foot above 280 at 283.30, setting a new high. The RSI is rising, while %K/%D are diverging on the upside, with %K/%D in the overbought. The MACD diff is positive and diverging, outlining recent market growth. On the downside, a break back below the support level of 280 could trigger losses back towards the trend support at 265, which would help confirm the outlook of lower prices in the longer term. On the upside, a complete break above 285 could trigger gains for further highs. The market rally has been strong in recent sessions, with three white soldiers' formation confirming the strength of bull sentiment. However, with the indicators being overbought and volume fading, the upside momentum could begin to stall in the near term.
Ldn 2nd Month Coffee Futures
Ldn coffee futures held their nerve yesterday as intraday trading caused the market to close above the 40 DMA of 4681 at 4773. The stochastics are rising, and the MACD diff is positive and diverging, suggesting higher prices in the near term. The %K/%D is also rising; to confirm the outlook for higher prices, futures need to close back above the trend line at 4775 and then target 5000. The 100 DMA is starting to close in and supporting prices from the downside. On the downside, the rejection of prices above current levels could trigger losses back towards 4500. A break below this level would confirm the downward trend. A narrow candle body on Friday points to market uncertainty, and the futures need to break out of current resistance/support to confirm the longer-term outlook.
NY 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
NY cocoa futures opened higher on Friday, but resistance at 38.2% f at 8773 caused futures to close lower on the day at 8504. The stochastics are flattening out on the upside, with %K/%D flat and overbought. The MACD diff is positive, but the upside momentum is stalling. On the downside, a break of 8000 could trigger losses through 200 DMA at 7555, with the tertiary levels at 10 and 40 DMAs at 7454 and 6765, respectively. On the upside, a break above 873 could set the scene for bullish momentum towards 9000. The candle closing lower on the day could be a sign that futures have found robust resistance at current levels, and we could see a trend reversal in the near term. To confirm this, the robust level at 8000 has to be taken out first.
Ldn 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
Ldn cocoa futures opened higher on Friday but struggled above the psychological resistance at 7000. Both %K/%D and the MACD diff are positive but are flattening out, outlining weakening buying pressures. To confirm the trend reversal, futures need to break back below the 6500 levels before testing the 100 DMA at 6043. A break below this level towards 10 DMA at 5906 would confirm the moderate bearish momentum. A gravestone doji candle shows rejection of higher prices above the 7000 level and could point to a start of the moderate bearish sentiment in the near term. We anticipate prices on the back foot in the near term before the change of trend.
