Deliverable FX

This report provides a concise morning update with fundamental and technical analysis and commentary for USD, EUR, GBP, and JPY currency pairs.

The EURUSD pair has been under significant selling pressure in recent weeks, driven by an increasingly divergent economic trajectory between the European and US economies. This divergence, compounded by growing political and fiscal uncertainties, is creating additional challenges for central banks in both regions as they grapple with the fast-changing economic environment. With budget issues in France and Germany, along with Trump assuming office in January, what is the outlook for EUR/USD in the coming months?

Brazil remains a dominant player in the coffee market, with farmers leveraging high domestic prices to maintain strategic selling practices despite wider dollar-based discounts. Nonetheless, challenging weather conditions throughout the growing season are casting a shadow over Brazil's coffee prospects. Understanding these dynamics is essential for making informed decisions as we move forward. Read our coffee crop update, with commentary on recent price activity, and coffee market forecasts to take advantage of market movements. 

This report provides a comprehensive analysis of the EV market, with a particular focus being on supply chain analysis through mining, battery cell production, and sales of EVs. Additionally, we examine the implications of EV-specific tariffs, assessing their impact on cross-border trade, manufacturing costs, and company competitiveness.

As we enter Q4 2024, several trends from the previous quarter continue to persist. The central banks began their interest rate cutting cycles, with the Fed initiating a 50bps cut at its first meeting. The ECB is on a similar path, but it is facing strong pressures to cut due to the weakening performance of the Eurozone, which is creating a larger yield differential compared to the US. In China, authorities are aiming to stimulate the economy through fiscal and monetary policy measures; however, they are struggling to restore market confidence, particularly in the construction sector. These factors, combined with the upcoming US elections in November, create a strong likelihood of increased volatility. In this report, we will examine the potential trajectories for base, ferrous, and precious metals in the final months of the year.